Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftalarda gerek yurt i\u00e7inde gerekse diasporada, b\u00f6lge ve d\u00fcnya kamuoyunu ciddi derecede me\u015fgul eden geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fand\u0131. Bunlar\u0131n en dikkat \u00e7ekicileri, \u0130ran-\u0130srail \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7apta da Hindistan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Narendra Modi\u2019nin G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s ziyaretiydi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yaz\u0131ya \u0130ran-\u0130srail \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla ba\u015flayal\u0131m. \u0130srail\u2019in son haftalarda \u00fcst d\u00fczey \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkilileri ve n\u00fckleer tesisleri hedef almas\u0131yla ba\u015flayan, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n misillemeleriyle t\u0131rmanan gerilim, ABD\u2019nin sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019a do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesiyle ve dini lideri Ali Hamenei\u2019i \u00f6l\u00fcmle tehdit etmesiyle daha da geni\u015fledi. Bu geli\u015fmeler sadece iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma olman\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7erek b\u00f6lgesel dengeleri sarsacak boyuta ula\u015ft\u0131. B\u00f6ylece b\u00f6lge kelimenin tam anlam\u0131yla bir ate\u015f \u00e7emberine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrken; ABD\u2019nin, Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin\u2019in \u201ckoyu tak\u0131m elbiseli adamlar\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ki\u015filer taraf\u0131ndan nas\u0131l y\u00f6nlendirildi\u011fi de yeniden netle\u015fmi\u015f oldu. Bu tablo kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Siyonistlerin ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi Bat\u0131 merkezli emperyalist d\u00fczenin pozisyonu da bir kez daha g\u00fcn y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 hamlelerini \u201cs\u00fck\u00fbnet\u201d \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131yla bast\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bu yap\u0131, iki y\u00fcz y\u0131ll\u0131k politik ge\u00e7mi\u015fi ve Gazze\u2019deki soyk\u0131r\u0131ma kar\u015f\u0131 sergiledi\u011fi suskunlukla ikiy\u00fczl\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bir kez daha g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne serdi. Ve ne yaz\u0131k ki i\u00e7imizde daha h\u00e2len – \u00f6zellikle K\u0131br\u0131s meselesinde – bu Bat\u0131\u2019dan s\u00f6z\u00fcm ona bar\u0131\u015f getirecek g\u0131yab\u0131nda medet umanlar var. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Oysa b\u00f6lgemizde ya\u015fananlar bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n ne denli k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu ve samimi olarak kimin taraf\u0131ndan istendi\u011fini, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m\u0131n hem d\u00fcnyada hem de yak\u0131n co\u011frafyam\u0131zda nas\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fck yang\u0131nlara yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini bir kez daha g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne sermektedir. Bu geli\u015fmeler K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019a zaten do\u011frudan etki etmektedir. Zira G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n senelerdir b\u00f6lgedeki tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek yerine gitgide k\u00f6r\u00fckleyecek \u015fekilde hareket etmesi t\u00fcm aday\u0131 riske atmaktad\u0131r. \u0130srail\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fen f\u00fczelerin adadan \u00e7\u0131plak g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve 2023\u2019te KKTC\u2019ye yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131kla isabet eden roket hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda adan\u0131n yaln\u0131zca co\u011frafi de\u011fil, Hristodulidis\u2019in politikalar\u0131yla stratejik a\u00e7\u0131dan da ne kadar tehlikelere a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu gidi\u015fle G\u00fcney, Hamas ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131 direkt ve a\u00e7\u0131k tehditlerine ra\u011fmen Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n do\u011frudan bir par\u00e7as\u0131 h\u00e2line gelecektir. D\u0131\u015f istihbarat \u00f6rg\u00fctlerine alan a\u00e7an, yabanc\u0131 sava\u015f gemilerine limanlar\u0131n\u0131 kulland\u0131ran, hava sahas\u0131n\u0131 ve askeri altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 Bat\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lere ve \u0130srail\u2019e tahsis eden bir y\u00f6netim a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ate\u015fle oynamaktad\u0131r. \u00d6yle ki \u015fahs\u0131m\u0131 G\u00fcney Afrika\u2019dan bir radyo kanal\u0131 aray\u0131p K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131ndaki rol\u00fc \u00fczerine analiz istemi\u015fse, bu bile G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ne kadar dikkat \u00e7ekici bir tehlike h\u00e2line geldi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
S\u00f6z konusu yay\u0131nda en \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 soru \u015fuydu: K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019ta sald\u0131r\u0131lar olur mu? Oradan kalkacak f\u00fczeler \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 vurur mu ya da \u0130ran, K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131 hedef al\u0131r m\u0131? Bu sorulara a\u00e7\u0131k yan\u0131t verilmelidir. G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s, istihbarat ve askeri yap\u0131lanma a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Bat\u0131 d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n, hatta NATO\u2019nun en g\u00fcneydo\u011fudaki ileri karakolu h\u00e2line gelmi\u015ftir. Stratejik konumu, Hristiyan n\u00fcfusu ve AB \u00fcyeli\u011fiyle birlikte, geni\u015fletilmi\u015f Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019in ve hatta Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun \u0130srail\u2019den sonraki en Bat\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131 dayanak noktas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu nedenle b\u00f6lgeye \u00e7\u0131kmak isteyen her g\u00fc\u00e7, stratejisi gere\u011fi G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019a yerle\u015fmek zorunda kalmaktad\u0131r. \u0130srail de kendi topraklar\u0131 tehdit alt\u0131ndayken esnek askeri manevralar\u0131n\u0131 ancak K\u0131br\u0131s \u00fczerinden yapabilecektir. Zira b\u00f6lgedeki M\u00fcsl\u00fcman \u00fclkeler, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte farkl\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc \u00e7izseler de en son Gazze\u2019de ya\u015fanan insanl\u0131k trajedisinden sonra \u0130srail\u2019e destek vermeyecektir. Bu ba\u011flamda G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s, \u0130srail i\u00e7in adeta bir s\u0131\u011f\u0131nakt\u0131r. Nitekim \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bir\u00e7ok \u0130srailli ge\u00e7en hafta hava ve deniz yoluyla G\u00fcneye ge\u00e7ti, bu da b\u00f6lgede konaklama krizine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131 Atat\u00fcrk\u2019\u00fcn neden \u201cu\u00e7ak gemisi\u201d ve eski Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Benjamin Disraeli\u2019nin neden \u201cAsya\u2019n\u0131n anahtar\u0131\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bug\u00fcn \u00e7ok daha iyi anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Peki, \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 f\u00fczelerin G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019tan f\u0131rlat\u0131lmas\u0131 ya da operasyonlar\u0131n oradan y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmesi ne kadar olas\u0131? E\u011fer \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma derinle\u015fir ve \u0130srail, belki de ba\u015fka devletlerin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 desteklemesiyle a\u011f\u0131r darbe alma noktas\u0131na gelirse bu senaryo bir olas\u0131l\u0131k de\u011fil, ger\u00e7eklik h\u00e2line gelebilir. G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s bu noktada geli\u015fen bir sava\u015fa do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahil olmayabilir ama hava sahas\u0131n\u0131 ve askeri altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u0130srail ve m\u00fcttefiklerine a\u00e7arak dolayl\u0131 olarak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya girmesi olas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu nedenle oklar\u0131n K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019a \u00e7evrilmesi kuvvetle muhtemeldir. Ancak do\u011frudan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr. Zira \u0130ran b\u00f6yle bir hamleyle yaln\u0131zca AB\u2019yi de\u011fil, \u0130ngiliz \u00fcsleri dolay\u0131s\u0131yla NATO\u2019yu ve orada konu\u015flanan di\u011fer \u00fclkeleri de fiilen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na al\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bunu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s ve Bat\u0131 yapt\u0131klar\u0131 hamlelerde bir beis g\u00f6rmemekte, ancak kar\u015f\u0131 hamlelerde mazlumu su\u00e7layarak \u201cs\u00fck\u00fbnet\u201d \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapmaktad\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, d\u00fcnya kamuoyunun akl\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a alay etmektir. Tek kutuplu d\u00fczenin sars\u0131lmas\u0131 onlar\u0131 pani\u011fe sevk etmekte, o nedenle son haftalarda tela\u015fla hareket etmektedirler. \u0130srail\u2019in t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada yok olmaya y\u00fcz tutan itibar\u0131, ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc, kaybetti\u011fi m\u00fcttefikleri ve y\u00fckselen alternatif g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bu d\u00fczenin art\u0131k eskisi kadar etkili olamayaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Belki bug\u00fcn de\u011fil ama yar\u0131n istedikleri gibi hareket edemeyecekleri g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fakat bu imk\u00e2nlar\u0131 yaratan, zaman\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 \u00fclkesini Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ileri karakolu h\u00e2line getiren, ABD\u2019ye \u00fcs teklif eden, Fransa\u2019ya sabit liman izni veren G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s’\u0131n ta kendisidir ve bu bar\u0131\u015f adas\u0131n\u0131 gitgide sava\u015f adas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmektedir. Buna ra\u011fmen h\u00e2l\u00e2 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi sava\u015f\u0131n k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 gibi g\u00f6stermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ve i\u00e7erideki destek\u00e7ilerin de b\u00f6yle bir iddiada bulunmas\u0131 samimiyetsizli\u011fin v\u00fccut bulmu\u015f halidir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu ikiy\u00fczl\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, Narendra Modi\u2019nin G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s ziyaretiyle bir kez daha g\u00f6rd\u00fck. G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s’\u0131n, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin – \u00f6zellikle birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda – tekraren Ke\u015fmir meselesinde Pakistan lehine tutumuna kar\u015f\u0131 Hindistan\u2019\u0131 Ada\u2019ya davet etmesi Ankara\u2019ya a\u00e7\u0131k bir mesaj niteli\u011findedir. Air India u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n THY bak\u0131m\u0131nda olmas\u0131 nedeniyle ya\u015fanan kriz ve bir Hint generalin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi tehdit eden a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 bu gerginli\u011fin somut \u00f6rnekleridir. G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s ise t\u00fcm bu ortamda f\u0131rsat kollamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bak\u0131n\u0131z, h\u00e2l\u00e2 anlamayan varsa tekrar edelim: Bu akt\u00f6rlerle bar\u0131\u015f olmaz, dostluk kurulmaz. Olursa da yeni bir Sykes-Picot, yeni bir Kanl\u0131 Noel olur. Zaman ge\u00e7se de hakikat de\u011fi\u015fmez. T\u00fcrkiye g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bunlar ad\u0131m atam\u0131yorlar. Ama diyelim ki bir g\u00fcn kazara buna yeltenseler, Gazze\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n nas\u0131l sessizli\u011fe g\u00f6m\u00fclece\u011fi ortadad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu nedenle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin her daim g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131 ve KKTC\u2019deki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 devam ettirmesi vazge\u00e7ilmezdir. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde, KKTC\u2019nin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi ve iki devletli \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm, her zamankinden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00f6neme sahiptir. Bu kritik e\u015fikte al\u0131nacak yanl\u0131\u015f kararlar, \u00e7ok vahim sonu\u00e7lara neden olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yakla\u015fan cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerine yaln\u0131zca ki\u015filer \u00fczerinden de\u011fil; vizyon, duru\u015f ve ulusal \u00e7\u0131karlar perspektifinden bakmak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n